Jump to content

Nadine Cranenburgh

Administrators
  • Content Count

    93
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    4

Everything posted by Nadine Cranenburgh

  1. How is the pandemic affecting Australia and other nations (from a risk engineering perspective)? What is the difference between individual and societal risk and how does each relate to the pandemic response? How are governments balancing the economic and public health risks? What about a long term plan including economic recovery? What is outrage risk and how can it be managed? How long will the restrictions need to be in place? What risk management/ risk engineering tools and techniques are useful during the crisis? What risk management procedures should be in place for engineering workplaces? How can engineers can help people live and work more safely and productively during the crisis and recovery? Will COVID-19 change the way we do risk engineering?
  2. until

    During today's webinar on Australian Capital Projects – Risk Management, Project Controls and COVID-19 Pedram Danesh-Mand mentioned some useful references for calculating contingency and escalation in projects. I've posted them here for easy reference. Risk Engineering Society Contingency Guideline: https://rebok.engineersaustralia.org.au/search/?q=contingency&quick=1 Australian Government Cost Estimation Guide: https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/funding_and_finance/cost_estimation_guidance.aspx Pedram also mentioned some guideline for escalation from the AACEI, which he recommended as a secondary reference for Australian projects. The full documents are only accessible to AACE members, but links to samples are below: http://web.aacei.org/docs/default-source/toc/toc_58r-10.pdf https://web.aacei.org/docs/default-source/toc/toc_68r-11.pdf?sfvrsn=4
  3. During today's webinar on Australian Capital Projects – Risk Management, Project Controls and COVID-19 Pedram Danesh-Mand mentioned some useful references for calculating contingency and escalation in projects. I've posted them here for easy reference. Risk Engineering Society Contingency Guideline: https://rebok.engineersaustralia.org.au/search/?q=contingency&quick=1 Australian Government Cost Estimation Guide: https://investment.infrastructure.gov.au/about/funding_and_finance/cost_estimation_guidance.aspx Pedram also mentioned some guidelines for escalation from the AACEI, which he recommended as a secondary reference for Australian projects. The full documents are only accessible to AACE members, but links to samples are below: http://web.aacei.org/docs/default-source/toc/toc_58r-10.pdf https://web.aacei.org/docs/default-source/toc/toc_68r-11.pdf?sfvrsn=4
  4. Introduction Over the past 20 years, processes have been developed to identify and manage risks in complex projects to implement risk-based approaches for better cost and schedule estimation. However, these processes generally treat cost and schedule separately instead of integrating them in one model. Integrating cost and schedule is highly relevant as schedule delays are often the root cause of severe cost overruns. Process The process used for developing an integrated cost and schedule model is: The base cost estimate is reviewed, subjected to uncertainties and integrated into the Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) Identified risks are assessed (probable cost & time impact) and integrated into the WBS and construction schedule Risks are assigned to tasks in the project’s schedule. Subsequently, completion date, critical paths and delays due to risks are simulated (using Monte Carlo simulation) Cost impacts due to time delays are calculated with time-related costs and integrated into the WBS Project Cost including uncertainty is available at all WBS levels and for all cost components. This process is summarised in the diagram below. Diagram courtesy of Taylor Burns, RiskConsult, GmbH Sources The information on this page was primarily sourced from: Text provided by Taylor Burns, Project Engineer, RiskConsult, GmbH Peer review conducted by Pedram DaneshMand, Director, Project Risk Consulting, Audit, Assurance & Risk Consulting, KPMG CEVP-RIAAT Process—Application of an Integrated Cost and Schedule Analysis by Philip Sander and Martin Entacher from RiskConsult and John Reilly from John Reilly International.
  5. Introduction The Cost Estimation and Validation Process (CEVP) is a process used to address the common concerns associated with large complex projects. These include: Why do project costs seem to always go up? Why can’t the public and/or private owners be told exactly what a project will cost? Why can’t projects be delivered at the cost quoted at the start of the project? CEVP opens the 'black box' of estimating, ensures cost transparency, and provides a basis for senior management decisions. Process In CEVP, estimates are comprised of two components: the base cost component and the risk component. Base cost is defined as the planned cost of the project if everything materialises as planned and assumed. The base cost does not include contingency but does include the normal variability of prices, quantities and like units. Once the base cost is established, a list of risks is identified and characterised (including both opportunities and threats, and listed) in a risk register. This process is shown in the diagram below, which is conducted according to the following principles: bring project and CEVP team (including subject matter experts) together in workshops promote openness to risks which may occur (culture of realism without cognitive bias <link>) create mutual understanding of the project integrate uncertainties <link> in all phases create a clear project structure which includes base cost, risk and escalation. Diagram courtesy of Taylor Burns, RiskConsult, GmbH This risk assessment replaces general and vaguely defined contingency with explicitly defined risk events that include the associated probability of occurrence plus impact on project cost and/or schedule for each risk event. Risk is usually developed in a CEVP Cost Risk Workshop. The validated base cost, base variability and the probable consequence of risk events are combined in a simulation model (such as RIAAT) to produce an estimated range of cost and schedule, with probabilities of achieving a particular cost or schedule outcome. The output is a rich data set of probable cost and schedule, potential impact of risk events, ranking of risks, and risk impact diagrams. Outputs An example of the probabilistic cost outputs can be seen in the diagram below. Note that similar S-Curves can be derived for schedule. The three S-Curves shown below are made up of the following cost components: Base cost: the cost if “all goes according to plan” without contingencies Uncertainty cost: the variability of prices, quantities and time frames Risk cost: the cost resulting from threats and opportunities that might occur Escalation cost: additional costs resulting from inflation Diagram courtesy of Taylor Burns, RiskConsult, GmbH As shown in the diagram above, once uncertainty, risk cost and escalation are considered through the CEVP process, the probability of the originally budget not being exceeded is only 20 per cent. Sources The information on this page was primarily sourced from: Text provided by Taylor Burns, Project Engineer, RiskConsult, GmbH Peer review conducted by Pedram DaneshMand, Director, Project Risk Consulting, Audit, Assurance & Risk Consulting, KPMG CEVP-RIAAT Process—Application of an Integrated Cost and Schedule Analysis by Philip Sander and Martin Entacher from RiskConsult and John Reilly from John Reilly International.
  6. RAMS RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, Safety) is a management process used to avoid failures during the planning stage of projects. RAMS Management ensures that systems are defined, risk analyses are performed, hazards are identified and detailed reviews and safety cases are executed and reported. One specific goal is to provide hard evidence to achieve authorisation for operations. These terms can be summarised as follows: Reliability – as ability to perform a specific function and may be assessed as design reliability or operational reliability Availability – as ability to keep a functioning state in the given environment Maintainability – as ability to be timely and easily maintained (including servicing, inspection and check, repair and/or modification) Safety – as ability not to harm people, the environment, or any assets during a whole life cycle. Fault Tree Analysis The Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) is the core of probabilistic safety value analysis. The FTA depicts the functional system and quantifies all relevant factors to evaluate reliability, availability, maintainability and safety of the complete system. All components of a system will be evaluated systematically and analysed according to their roles and functions within the system. Starting at the Top Event (System Failure) all functions, and the assigned failure status of the system’s components are evaluated. This results in a Boolean Model (Fault Tree) which is quantified by the characteristic reliability values. The logical linking of events is based on the following graphical elements as shown in the diagram below. Diagram courtesy of Taylor Burns, RiskConsult, GmbH Example results After completing the analysis, the following example information (see diagram below) can be used to help improve the safety of the system. In the below example it was found that due to an error in a braking system that the reliability was only 78 per cent. By taking a low risk tolerant approach and using the VaR95 value we can determine that the down time within one year will be less than 6.5 hours, and in this case the corrective maintenance costs would be in the order of $6200. For the full example please see the following link. Diagram courtesy of Taylor Burns, RiskConsult, GmbH Analysing the example braking system for safety of a period of one hour, we can see the system has a high level of safety, with the average probability of a dangerous failure per hour being 4.8E-11. Diagram courtesy of Taylor Burns, RiskConsult, GmbH Sources The information on this page was primarily sourced from: Text provided by Taylor Burns, Project Engineer, RiskConsult, GmbH Peer review conducted by Pedram DaneshMand, Director, Project Risk Consulting, Audit, Assurance & Risk Consulting, KPMG RiskConsult RIAAT Software RAMS Analysis webpage, 2019.
  7. Introduction Probabilistic Safety Value Analysis is a process that uses the Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety (RAMS) process combined with Fault Tree Analysis (FTA). It is designed to achieve the following objectives: evaluate the soundness of a system check if all safety requirements are fulfilled (using RAMS) create a better understanding of context, causes and effects evaluate critical failure combinations (Minimal Cut Sets) provide a description of potential for optimisation via comprehensive assessment support probabilistic methods to model uncertainty Outcomes Based on the results of probabilistic safety value analysis, measures can be taken to optimise the system such as: optimisation of the system structure creation of additional redundancies replacement of particularly susceptible components with more robust components installation of monitoring systems to detect faults at an early stage adjustment of maintenance intervals and scope avoidance of common cause failures. Sources The information on this page was primarily sourced from: Text provided by Taylor Burns, Project Engineer, RiskConsult, GmbH Peer review conducted by Pedram DaneshMand, Director, Project Risk Consulting, Audit, Assurance & Risk Consulting, KPMG RiskConsult RIAAT Software RAMS Analysis webpage, 2019.
  8. We've updated the Further Reading section of the Complexity and Risk Management topic in the REBOK wiki with Warren Black's recommendations to further explore the ideas he talked about in his recent webinar. His suggestions are also in the slide below.
  9. until

    Hi Tim, Glad you enjoyed the webinar! Warren's suggestions have been added to the REBOK wiki post on Complexity and Risk Management under Further Reading (at the end).
  10. The recordings for our last two webinars are now available! Risk Management and COVID-19: how can REBOK help? by Geoff Hurst FIEAust CPENG NER CHOHSP (Director & Founder @ ENGENEOHS Pty Ltd) Coronavirus – Lessons in Risk, Resilience & Complex Systems by Warren Black, Founder & Principle of Complexus You can access all of our previous webinar recordings at this link: https://rebok.engineersaustralia.org.au/webinar_records.html/
  11. The World Economic Forum (WEF) has recently released a report examining the economic consequences and risk resulting from the global COVID-19 Pandemic. A summary of key findings from the WEF website is below. You can download the full report at this link. https://www.weforum.org/reports/covid-19-risks-outlook-a-preliminary-mapping-and-its-implications
  12. Thanks for posting this, Geoff. Just a note that to download this monograph PDF file you need to register as a member of the REBOK community. Registration is free and open to anyone with an interest in risk engineering.
  13. We're gearing up to deliver a series of lunchtime webinars on topics of interest to the REBOK community starting in May. In the meantime, R2A Due Diligence Engineers have kindly allowed us to include a link to the recording of their webinar Introduction to Engineering Due Diligence which you can view here. If you would like to nominate as a presenter or have any topic suggestions please email Jackson Jones, the REBOK community facilitator (Rebok@engineersaustralia.org.au)
  14. Thanks for joining the conversation, Geoff. I thought it would be a good opportunity to point members to the REBOK page which looks at the differences and legal ramifications of reducing risk to 'as low as reasonably practicable' (ALARP) and 'so far as is reasonably practicable' (SFAIRP). Here's a link:
  15. Engineers Australia has posted a checklist developed by the International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC) and international law firm Hogan Lovells to address concerns raised by industry. They give the following disclaimer: "Whilst FIDIC does not provide legal advice on any of our standard procurement contract forms, we believe that the check list provided below will be useful as a starting point for any business in addressing the potential impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on their current projects." https://www.engineersaustralia.org.au/node/51486
  16. Risk Engineering Society (RES) President and REBOK Steering Committee member Geoff Hurst recently provided some practical advice for managing risks posed by COVID-19 at engineering workplaces. It would be interesting to hear whether other community members have advice to share. https://www.createdigital.org.au/risk-engineering-best-practice-covid-19-environment/
  17. To more easily allow the REBOK Community to keep up to date and discuss developments and discussions related to the COVID-19 pandemic, we've created a new dedicated forum: https://rebok.engineersaustralia.org.au/forums/forum/4-rebok-covid-19-discussion-forum/
  18. Risk Engineering Society (RES) President and REBOK Steering Committee member Geoff Hurst recently provided some practical advice for managing risks posed by COVID-19 at engineering workplaces. It would be interesting to hear whether other community members have advice to share. https://www.createdigital.org.au/risk-engineering-best-practice-covid-19-environment/
  19. One of the objectives of REBOK is to explore the essence and boundaries of risk engineering. To that end, we have been working on a FAQ page that explores what risk engineering is and how it relates to different engineering disciplines, project and risk management. It would be great to get the conversation started about what risk engineering means to other members of the REBOK Community. Comments and input welcome.
  20. Hi Deon, glad you found them useful! We are planning webinars for this year, so please feel free to email the REBOK community facilitator (Rebok@engineersaustralia.org.au) if you have any suggestions for speakers or topics.
  21. There have been some new webinars added to the REBOK archive. If you'd like to catch up on a webinar you attended or weren't able to make it to, visit this link: https://rebok.engineersaustralia.org.au/webinar_records.html/
  22. The success of the REBOK Community depends very much on the engagement of its members. As such we would very much like you to optimise your settings so that you are aware of what is going on and can engage fully. Due to privacy laws we can't do this for you. Following are the steps you need to take to be fully engaged: Firstly you need to be logged on to make changes to your settings. Click the sign in button at the top right or register if you have not already done so. Follow the LinkedIn main forums: Click on the forums tab then click the Follow button at the top right Choose you frequency of emails (we recommend "when new content is posted" otherwise you can't participate in the live conversation) Follow the Wiki: Click on the Wiki tab, then index and click the follow button. The above are the most important ones. However, we also suggest that you bookmark the following useful pages in your browser: Calendar of events Webinar Recordings On your profile page (down arrow in top right corner) upload an image of yourself (picture icon next to circle) and say something about yourself by clicking the "Edit Profile" button tick any appropriate organisation membership consider enabling status updates so you can share what you are doing in the Risk Engineering space tick "news and information" and "automatically follow content" in the Notification Settings. Please choose to receive emails frequently as most communities thrive with regular interaction. Finally, don't forget to make a contribution by: Add a risk engineering event you have heard of, or are hosting, to the Other Events section of the calendar Make a comment on any page of the Wiki Post a discussion forum topic Participate in the RES LinkedIn Forum Post a blog and tell your friends about REBOK.
  23. Introduction Quantitative risk assessment is one approach to measuring risk. It involves measuring both consequences and likelihoods using numerical scales. These can be expressed as ranges or distributions. Alternative measurement approaches are qualitative and semi-quantitative risk assessment. Examples Quantitative risk assessment techniques need to be carried out using the appropriate units for the risk being measured. For example, the expected frequency of car accidents per thousand kilometres travelled by a driver. Other examples include the mean time to failure of a piece of equipment, expected values of financial returns over a financial year, or cost of repairs per thousand duty cycles. The consequence of risks can also be expressed as a probability distribution, for example, the variance of returns on a financial investment. Another quantitative measure is calculating the value which has a certain probability of occurring for a particular risk. For example, the number of litres which have a 50 per cent chance of leaking out of a particular water pipe over a year. Quantitative methods can also express consequence-based measures such as the probable maximum loss from an investment. These are usually used when there is not enough data to estimate likelihood, or there is uncertainty over which project controls will fail. Risk aggregation Quantitative risk assessment can be used to aggregate values for a group of like risks into a single value as long as they share a single consequence and common units, such as Australian dollars or failures per hour. However, this reduces the amount of data available about each individual risk, which may cause problems in complex systems. Correlations between probability distributions also need to be taken into account to avoid misleading results. For a reliable result, tools such as Monte Carlo simulation should be used to combine distributions. Sources: The content on this page was primarily sourced from: IEC 31010:2019 Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques (6.3.5.4)
  24. Introduction Semi-quantitative risk assessment is one approach to measuring risk. It involves expressing one parameter, such as likelihood, quantitively. The other parameter is assigned a descriptive or numerical ranking. Alternative measurement approaches are qualitative and quantitative risk assessment. Limitations When using semi-quantitative methods, risk engineers and other practitioners should ensure that they provide explanations of how their quantitative calculations were carried out to avoid them being misinterpreted. Like qualitative methods, semi-quantitative methods are only useful to compare risks with a common measurement method, or with the same criteria. They can also be difficult to use in cases where trade-offs between risks need to be measured, or where a particular risk can have both positive and negative outcomes. To combine or aggregate risks, quantitative methods must be used. Sources: The content on this page was primarily sourced from: • IEC 31010:2019 Risk Management – Risk Assessment Techniques (6.3.5.4)
  25. Introduction Systems thinking is a branch of the complexity sciences which can be readily applied to modern-day risk management. It is also referred to as complex systems theory and systems theory. The purpose of systems thinking is to try to understand how highly integrated and interactive systems operate and apply that knowledge to everyday management situations. Unlike more mathematical complexity sciences such as computational and chaos theory, systems thinking is a practical field, and can be readily understood by most stakeholders. Sources: The information on this page is based primarily on the following sources: Webinar titled ‘An Introduction to Complexity and How it Influences Risk Management’, Session 1', delivered to REBOK community on 30 April 2019 by Warren Black, Principal and Founder, Complexus and Geoff Hurst, Principal, ENGENEOHS
×
×
  • Create New...